Because you can't roll a round die
Last night in class we were discussing the validity of simulation as a model of reality. At first glance this seems totally uncontroversial, but then my friend Tony related this story. He's been taking Persi Diaconis's statistics class, which begins with ancient Greek and Talmudic perspectives. Persi Diaconis can get away with this because he is a magician-turned-statistician, who never really lost his roots, and he has magical powers like the ability to flip a coin to all heads or all tails just because he wants to.

One day, Diaconis was approached by a man who wanted to physically roll a die one million times and compare the real-world results to the standard breakdown of die roll probabilities. Well, the man actually rolled the die three million times under Diaconis's watch...

As it turns out, after about ten thousand the die starts to get round. The roundness is due to the die hitting the rolling surface and having little bits chipped off, and at ten thousand this chipping becomes statistically significant. And so the mathematical models we have of many many rolls eventually regressing toward perfect distributions are basically impotent, because, duh, you can't roll a round die and expect to get good results.

Awesome.
Filed under: School.

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